(Unless stated Squakwa has been used as a source for statistics)
Cardiff will be an interesting prospect for their fellow Premier League teams when facing them this season, one unlike any of the established top-flight teams. Take yourself back to last seasons cup tie between them and eventual Premier League champions Man City and you’ll see a side up for a battle and not afraid to tread the line between fair and unfair play. Man City ultimately won 2-0 but Cardiff didn’t roll over, weren’t disgraced and won’t be this season.
Many have said Cardiff manager Neil Warnock is not able to translate his Football League success to the Premier League, which I think is unfair and his record isn’t as bad as many others suggest. When he was at QPR the club were a basket case. He wasn’t given enough time following achieving promotion to make a good enough judgement on his performance either way. At Sheffield United admittedly they went down in their first season. However, they only went down by one goal on goal difference and only after losing on the last day of the season to the team who stayed up at their expense, Wigan. Hardly a disaster. His time at Palace in the Premier League was also too short to derive any real judgement from. Elsewhere he’s proven over and over he’s good enough to take a team and quickly get it overachieving expectations whilst in the Football League, so why not at the top level?
Cardiff are a team that I think are suited to upset the odds. Last season they were a defensively stubborn team – conceding only 39 goals in the league. The second lowest total in the Championship with only champions Wolves conceding less, they’ll need to show those qualities again this season. They managed this despite conceding plenty of possession, with an average possession last season of only 47%, which is unusually low for a promoted side. Even Brighton under the pragmatic Hughton averaged higher at 51% in our promotion season. They compensate this with a good record on set piece goals, with over a third of their goals coming from set pieces last season. Something that should worry the Albion at least if their defending from set pieces last season is anything to go by.
Cardiff, unlike other promoted sides have no need to change their style of play and with a number of players with a point to prove, they will relish coming up against the big guns. Whilst they have not signed many new players I think they can still be a dangerous prospect and their style of play will help them overcome their shortfalls. Whilst they’re odds-on to go down, I think Cardiff will stay up. I’m not being contrary for the sake of it, they have what it takes to upset the bookies.
As the side promoted through the playoffs, Fulham historically have the toughest job of the three promoted sides in staying up, with 15 of the last 25 play off winners relegated in their first season.
This is especially true if you look at the defensive stats, whilst they only conceded 42 goals last season, the fourth lowest in the division, they certainly have a mistake in them. They made the fourth highest defensive errors in the Championship last season (23), only four of which resulted in goals. That’s an unlikely conversation rate in the Premier League, for instance the previous season’s playoff winners Huddersfield made 22 defensive errors in last season’s premier league, 10 of which led to goals.
As has been widely agreed Fulham have made a number of good signings, including some big names, and it will be interesting to see how they all adapt. But whilst this is true, they needed to make those signings given that they are the lowest ranked team going into the new Premier League season. The Albion and Huddersfield both spent big last summer in order to make the step up, whilst Newcastle’s spending spree in the summer following relegation the year before meant they were already well reinforced and ensured all three were able to beat the drop. So, whilst the signings they’ve made are impressive and show ambition, they needed to be given the gulf they have to make up over the summer and I doubt it will give them an edge over other more established teams.
Fulham are a team that like the ball and to control possession, averaging 55% possessing last season. This isn’t something they can expect this season and they will have to get used to spending long periods without the ball, particularly against the top 6 or risk being overrun. In fact, last season all the teams outside the top 6 averaged less than 50% possession, no doubt somewhat skewed by the Man City effect but nonetheless a striking statistic. If they plan to carry on last season’s possession-based approach in the top flight this underlines the need for signings of the like of Jean Michael Seri and Zambo Anguissa to hit the ground running. Time will tell but Fulham have work to do to make the step up and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was too much for them.
England’s new ‘golden generation’
With the tune to “Three Lions” just about out of our heads and the Premier League starting, international football takes a back seat. But will we see more of the young English talent who’ve done so well in various international tournaments at youth level, break into Premier League first teams this year? And will fans start to pressure managers and clubs to give them more first team opportunities?
It certainly promises to be an exciting season for some of the young Englishmen. Particularly if the Community Shield is anything to go by then we will be seeing more of them this season. The highly rated Phil Foden started and played well as City went onto win that game, whilst Hudson-Odoi started for Chelsea and former Albion target Tammy Abraham came off the bench. Whereas at Liverpool the U20s World Cup winner and player of the tournament Dominic Solanke has already made a number of first team appearances since signing last summer. He is amongst plenty of impressive young English talent at the club including Alexander-Arnold and another former Albion target Joe Gomez. Those three sides appear to be the teams to watch for England’s future World Cup stars but here’s hoping there’s more besides.
To say Sarri is one of the characters of European football is probably underselling it. From reports of excessive chain smoking to stories of absurd superstitions such as repeatedly reversing into a player’s car before games for good luck, the man comes with a reputation for being an eccentric. And add to that the allegations of Homophobia made against him by former City manager Roberto Mancini, it could be an interesting and at times controversial season for Chelsea purely off the pitch.
But on the pitch, he could have a huge impact. Sarri worked wonders at Napoli, creating what many believe to be the best Napoli side since the days of Maradona, pushing the imperious Juventus close in the title race last season and playing some great football at the same time. Napoli were indeed an exciting side to watch, creating the equal second most chances in Europe’s top 5 leagues last season (472), equal with Man City and only beaten by European Champions Real Madrid (498).
Playing a high pressing 433 they scored plenty of goals and created lots of chances, and if pre-season is anything to go by he plans to set Chelsea up to do the same. After 4 years of organised, defensive tactics under Mourinho and then Conte this will be a big change for Chelsea and one that whatever the outcome will be interesting to watch.
Usually international football is a boring inconvenience amongst an exciting Premier League season and only every 2 years does it get our full attention. UEFA are hoping this may change with the invention of the Nations League. England are in a group with Spain and Croatia, playing them home and away over the course of the season with the winner of the group going through to the semi-finals in June.
It will be interesting on two fronts. Firstly, following the success of the England national team in the summer will it catch the imagination of the public, unlike most international breaks in previous seasons? Secondly, will the players risk injury and their club managers fury to play in these games, unlike most international breaks in previous seasons?
Time will tell how much things really have changed but it does appear to be coming at a good time for English football. Amongst the political and economic uncertainty, the country is experiencing some serendipitous escapism in the form of a new-found enthusiasm for the national football team. So, don’t put those waistcoats to the back of the wardrobe just yet.
The Hughton high press
I wasn’t going to write something completely non-Albion related, was I? With the Albion approaching a second season in the top flight it appears Hughton’s plan for progression involves a change in tactical approach. Last season the team set up with a deep defensive line and then hitting teams on the break, but there are plans in place to shift to a higher pressing more offensive style.
Nantes manager Miguel Cardoso described the intensity of Brighton’s play in the recent pre-season friendly between the sides as “Incredible”. The last time the Albion were described as incredible it certainly wasn’t describing their pressing tactics.
This is something Bruno also spoke about ahead of the Nantes game, saying that in preparation for these new tactics that pre-season had been “very tough”. The Albion captain said: “I think people will see a difference this season when it comes to pressing. We want to be a team who do that even more. We are going to arrive in better shape than ever when we get to the league. Last season we were a very solid team, a team who worked hard, and that will stay the same.”
Whether a pressing style where the team push higher up the pitch leaving space in behind the back four will suit full back Bruno at the ripe age of 38 is debatable. However as already mentioned, as a unit the Albion set up to defend very deep in their own half last season. This meant the midfield had to cover a lot of ground to get from defence to attack, with moves often breaking down before an attack had begun. This limited the number of chances the Albion created, in fact the 6th lowest in the division. Therefore, playing a higher defensive line and pressing higher up the pitch makes logical sense to counter this issue as the team looks to progress on from last season. Chris will therefore be hoping the current set of players bolstered by the new signings will be able to adapt to the change in style.
The Albion started last season playing incredibly cautious football, ending it with a low average possession of 45%. As the season went on the Albion became more comfortable and they started to attack more, which paid dividends. The Albion scored just 0.71 goals per game before the new year, but then scored 1.12 goals per game after the new year, a not insignificant 56% increase. This added goals per game coincided with a marginal increase in points per game from 1.05 to 1.12, a 7% increase. Pushing higher up the pitch may allow the Albion to create more chances and control games more. At very least it’s a tactical ploy to use against the lower ranked teams in the division at home.