Albion in relegation trouble

Sunday saw Albion’s women travel north to Leicester for their return WSL action after six weeks out. And it was a rusty and disjointed performance that led to a significant dent in this season’s prospects.

After the winter break three of last weeks new signings. Morse, Bergsvand and Stefanovic all made their debuts from the start, whilst Visalli made her debut from the bench.

The opening half hour was tight, with both sides clearly sensing the potential importance of the occasion. A win for Leicester and they were right back in the battle for survival. A win for Brighton and they could start looking up the table, rather than over their shoulder at bottom placed Leicester.

Things took a turn for the worse for Albion. As Stefanovic’s debut ended early as she limps off injured in the first half and was replaced by Albion’s fourth debutant Visalli.

Shortly after things would get worse as some awful defending left ex-Albion striker Aileen Whelan bags of time and space to pass the ball past Meghan Walsh in the Albion goal and into the back of the net from near the penalty spot.

You just knew it… this was Whelan’s first goal for Leicester in her tenth start since leaving Brighton in the summer (along with a long list of others). And what a time to get it.

Albion had been second best in the first half and were yet to test the opposition keeper, and needed something to change. But what followed was the opposite as Leicester doubled their lead through Samantha Tierney, who also scored her first goal of the season.

With Albion in trouble, new manager Jens Scheuer made his second substitution by throwing on Danielle Carter with half an hour to go, and then used his final sub to bring on the match winner in this fixture last season Maisie Symonds. But neither could muster the something special needed despite Symonds twice forcing the Leicester keeper into making a save. Given Albion had scored just 11 goals in their previous 8 WSL games this season, they were always unlikely to be able to turn over a two goal deficit with limited time left on the clock.

Leicester made it three in between Albion’s substitutions, and they were well worth their lead. The highly rated 18-year-old Monique Robinson came on for her first WSL appearance of the season and put away the third, with a finished described by BBC Sport as “a touch of class”.

Meanwhile Albion were floundering and sleepwalking toward relegation trouble. Much like it has been for the majority of this season, Albion were regularly exposed defensively, whilst offering a lack of cutting edge going forward.

New manager Jens Scheuer has spoken about the need for defensive stability, but that felt a long way off as Albion were humbled by a Leicester side who’d conceded 13 goals without reply in their last three fixtures and were looking dead-certs for relegation. Not so much now.

This was a huge victory for Leicester, thier first points of the season. And a huge defeat for Albion, both in size and importance. One which leaves them second bottom and just four points above opponents Leicester and that relegation spot.

And it’s no wonder when you consider Albion have the worst defensive record in the league. They certainly showed why in this game.

Something needs to improve fast to avoid relegation. They have conceded 32 goals in just 9 WSL games this season. 7 goals more than bottom placed Leicester who’ve played a game more.

Albion conceded just 6 more goals (38) in the entirety of last season over 22 games. And it has been 13 games since Albion have kept a clean sheet, conceding 44 goals in that time.

There’s just the little matter of Arsenal at home next weekend too. Arsenal beat Albion 4-0 earlier in the season, and have scored 26 goals so far this season. So you could argue it’s already looking like a damage limitation job.

Still, it’s early days for Jens Scheuer and the new signings, who will need time to adjust. Let just hope Stefanovic’s injury isn’t serious.

It’s not quite time to panic yet though. There’s still over half of the season left and still plenty of time to turn things around. We’ve been in worse positions, let’s just hope Albion didn’t leave it too late with their recent recruitment.

Whilst it was a difficult result for Albion. It was good to see Leicester playing at their main stadium, the King Power.

Maybe if Albion had committed to more games at the AMEX in recent times, we wouldn’t have seen such a stream of departures last summer? Departures that have left huge issues that Albion are still trying to resolve.

Whilst the reminder of the loss of Whelan will be felt sharply after her opening goal, the loss of the defensive talents of Kovisto, Le Tissier, Gibbons and Kerkdijk were once again felt most of all, as Albion continue to struggle to rebuild their defensive stability after this summers mass exodus.

The season so far has seen more downs than ups. Whilst the departure of Hope Powell couldn’t have been seen coming after last season’s impressive league finish of 7th and 2021’s record high of 6th, it just demonstrates how badly things have gone since that a manager with such a great track record, such a long standing relationship with Paul Barber and such a massive reputation in women’s football was relived of her duties after just 8 games of the new season.

If Albion fail to resolve their issues they could realistically be playing next season in the Championship with local neighbours Lewes.

So with fortunes on the pitch faltering and home games in Crawley inevitably attracting small crowds. The club are at risk of not taking advantage of the upturn in Women’s football and being left behind by the competition.

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A Game of Opinions

Last Friday I retweeted my approval of a somewhat contrary opinion that Graham Potter’s decision to leave Brighton could be compared to Brighton’s sacking of Chris Hughton in terms of the manner of which both were enacted.

I’ll admit that it’s an out there opinion, particularly for a Brighton fan to express at this time when emotions are still running high following Graham Potter’s departure last year, but little did I expect the furore it would unleash.

Here’s a selection of some of the responses I received (directly or indirectly) to this post:

“The cynic in me wonders if someone is just trying to drive traffic towards their website…”

“I am stunned that they’ve put out another shit take”

“This guy is clueless😂😂😂😂

“One of the most stupidest things I’ve seen on Twitter for a while”

“Have decided to unfollow as the number of inaccurate ‘hot takes’ is astonishing. This one just the icing on the cake”

And here was me thinking football was a game of opinions…

It rather amazed me that a fairly harmless comparison led to so much negativity. The toxicity it drew was pretty crushing. That’s what happens I guess on Twitter if you come into contact with certain people.

Let me now point out that I’m quite happy with some cordial debate & even firm disagreement, as many did. And in fact I enjoyed discussing the topic with most of them. That’s the great thing about of Twitter. I even retweeted this discussion from Albion Unlimited on how they firmly disagreed because, in that vain, I believed that it was a fair and thought out response. https://app.getprly.com/share/prly/63c18107dffea2489d71000b

But some of the insults and chastisement for daring to at times express contrary opinion was disheartening.

That night I was close to quitting twitter and blogging altogether, but I quickly changed my mind the morning after. You could say, back by unpopular demand, because of the joy that blogging and tweeting about all things Albion gives me.

I write my blog, in part at least, because I’m not a particularly creative person and it allows me to stretch those creative muscles that I rarely otherwise use. I’m an accountant by trade rather than the type of a budding journalist or content creator that often administers these type of accounts. I’m not in this for any ultimate goal aside from just wanting to express an opinion on a subject I love, stretch those creative muscles and share my musings with fellow enthusiasts.

Sometimes, like the other day, I’ll take a slightly contrary or against the grain thought and run with it. In part, because I think discussions around football are far too often centred on the ‘considered view’ and it’s important to challenge that. And in part, because I just find it a more interesting and challenging task as a writer to find these alternative perspectives. We’re only talking about something as trivial as football after all.

And you know what, despite the inevitable scorn, I would recommend it to anyone. Writing is cathartic, it’s freeing, and I find a form of mindfulness. It helps me to release stress, relax and makes the rest of my day that bit more manageable.

I often write my blogs sat on a train, heading to work in the centre of London, anxious over the stress and strain of another days work. But like many people, football provides me with an escape in those sharp moments.

The joy we all experienced on Saturday after Brighton’s 3-0 win over Liverpool was electric. It’s days like that which give me the passion to spend hours travelling to and from football games, spending far too much of my disposable income doing so and then spending far too much of my spare time blabbering on about it to anyone that listens. Because to me that’s what a football club is, it’s the joy and experience it gives you that matters, the communities it builds, rather than the sport itself.

That’s not to say I’m any good at writing or creativity. I’ve been blogging and tweeting for 4 or 5 years now and built up at best, a fairly modest following. In addition I was privileged to be invited on both the Albion Roar and the TogetherBHA podcasts, the owners of whom I suspect would admit I wasn’t a particularly good guest, which is probably proven by the fact I’ve not been invited back. But I’d do it again if someone’s asked simply because I love talking to people about football and more to the point, the Albion.

Which is ultimately why by unpopular demand I have decided to stay and press on with what some will say are clueless, stupid and astonishingly shit blabbering, sometimes so awful just to try to drive attention to an non-monetized blogs and tweets. Because despite the cynicism and guffawing they sometime cause, they gives me joy.

So you know what. Fuck ‘em.

Up The Albion. X

Unprecedented success but us supporters are still the ones losing

What a week it’s been for the Albion, with Alexis Mac Allister becoming the first Albion player to win the World Cup. He’d already become the first Albion player to score at a World Cup, one containing by far the most representation from the club in its history.

Prior to the last World Cup in 2018, you could count the number of Brighton players involved at major international tournaments on one hand and have fingers to spare. And those players certainly didn’t threaten on being a key player for the winning side.

It’s a sign of how far the club has come in the past five and a half years since achieving promotion.

Jamie Carragher said that Brighton should expect to be relegated within the next five years following its promotion in 2017. He was right too, and the fact we are still here and going from strength to strength is a testament to the great work being done at the club.

However, it is somewhat bittersweet that this period of prominence at the club has coincided with this period of what at times appears to verge on moral bankruptcy across world football, with the Qatar World Cup a shining example of what issues exist in world football. As the straight-talking Roy Keane said during ITV’s coverage of the World Cup final, this World Cup is “stained”.

And if we are talking about world football arguably being morally bankrupt, then you can’t not focus on the Premier League. Of which our very own Brighton and Hove Albion own 1/20th of the shareholding and have done since promotion in the summer of 2017. So, by extension we must take our share of the blame for at best standing by and letting the continued escalation in recent years go on.

The Premier League “clubs” are largely now owned by a variety of investment groups with little regard for the “clubs” history or its supporter’s interest, nor with any connection to the local community those “clubs” represent. Neither do they have any interest or seemingly knowledge of English football more broadly. But instead, are purely focused on monetary return and repetitional benefits.

Our club has a vote and a voice. It would be nice to hear them using it for good more often to represent its communities’ interests, rather than defending at times morally suspect goings on.

Instead, name a controversy in Premier League politics over the time of Albion’s tenure and I suspect you’ll be able to find a quote from Paul Barber defending the policy.

Brighton are held up as a model club, and in many ways for good reason, but not necessarily in every way. Let’s look at the club’s finances to contextualise that.

In its last set of annual accounts Albion’s turnover was just under £140m, and yet they spent just under £170m on “player trading” & “football costs”.

This is a club that has made accumulated losses of £121m over the past two reported financial years. Leading to the club accumulating negative reserves of £239m. And it’s simply only still a going concern due to the £337m loan from Owner Tony Bloom.

You can of course rightly look at these figures as a reason to praise Tony Bloom’s commitment to the club. But furthermore, does that look like a shining example of a football club with its priorities in order?

The club stated upon releasing these accounts that: “despite the tough landscape, the accounts show that the club fully complied with Premier League Profitability and Sustainability (Financial Fair Play) regulations for the period.” It’s clear to me based on the numbers stated above that these regulations aren’t designed to ensure clubs live within their means or encourage financial sustainability and self-sufficiency.

In the accounts the club also states: “The club’s board continues to ensure the interests of all employees, supporters, partners, local community and other stakeholders are always given the fullest of consideration…”

Based on what we know, it’s hard to not see the phrase “Other stakeholders” as doing a lot of heavy lifting there. There are far too many examples in recent times of supporters’ interests being diminished, for the club to claim to give them “the fullest of consideration…”

Just take a look at the recent controversy of the increased match ticket terms and conditions as an example.

Paul Barber discussed this topic on a recent episode of the Brighton fan podcast Albion Roar saying: “This isn’t about being draconian, this is about trying to be fair to everyone, fair to the fans that are missing out, fair to the fans that are there and don’t want to be surrounded by people behaving stupidly, fair to the club that are hosting us because they are sick and tired of the behaviour of a small group of our fans and fair to the club because we don’t want a reputation for our travelling fans being a problem.”

But, whilst there are those whose behaviour warrants punishment, it certainly doesn’t feel fair to ban fans for games for some reportedly trivial reasons, like sharing tickets with family members. Or to leave fans queuing to collect tickets for hours on a cold winter night and then release a statement taking no responsibility whatsoever.

Frankly, this type of continued absence of care for supporters absolutely stinks, and it makes me wonder if Albion even care about us supporters interests anymore

Clubs often hide behind TV broadcasters to take the blame for supporter inconvenience, but the clubs are the league’s shareholders, they sell the TV rights that cause supporters so much strife and then insist on enforcing often unnecessary ticket terms & conditions, all whilst they claim they care about us supporters.

Paul Barber would of course talk about the importance of TV revenue to maintain the Premier League’s competitive advantages, etc, etc… Fine, but by prioritising that, you then need to be honest with supporters that you are not prioritising them. Rather than claiming to always given them “the fullest of consideration…”

Paul Barber also spoke on the Albion Roar podcast about the club improving the matchday experience by refreshing the signage and feel of the stadium along with the introduction of an improved fan-zone area outside the stadium on matchdays and improving the wayfinding at the stadium. Fine, but all things which I would suspect most Albion supporters wouldn’t consider huge priorities to improving their matchday experience.

Paul Barber also pointed to the increase in criminal behaviour and disorder at games as a reason to need to introduce many of these restrictions. Unfortunately, yet again proving that a small minority of football fans misbehaving inevitably leads to the majority being treated with suspicion and contempt.

Over the past year I have to be honest that I’ve felt a growing feeling of apathy towards the Albion despite all the recent success and unprecedented levels of prominence of the club.

In part due to my own personal circumstances of becoming a dad and other increasing personal commitments. But also, my own growing feeling that football isn’t for football supporters anymore, but instead just a vehicle for investment funds and the wealthy to make money and gain personal acclaim.

To a degree, as we get older it is inevitable that we feel less enthused about the things we loved when we were younger. But for me the late 1990s and early 2000s, when I started supporting the club, was very special time to be an Albion fan.

The club had just been fought back by supporters from the hands of its owners, after a long period of suspicion and anger, and ultimately fear and sorrow, at the way the club was being run.

So being a fan at the time, I genuinely felt part of something. Part of a club, a community, and a group of likeminded people.

These days, despite all the success and state of the art facilities, I just feel like another customer. A customer whose interests and interest are slowly diminishing.

I haven’t and won’t give up on the Albion that I fell in love with on those often cold, wet and windy afternoons at the Withdean stadium. As Micky Adams used to preach at the time, I will keep the faith. But I can’t pretend I, or I suspect many others, care as much as we used to. That’s my ultimate fear amongst all this recent success, is it just masking a growing resentment from supporters towards the clubs hierarchy. Maybe it is just me.

Jamie Carragher may well have been wrong about the length of the club’s Premier League tenure, but I think most would agree that he’s right in that it’s time here is limited. And if we’ve learned anything from the club’s history, it’s that when you take away the success, all you have left is the community of supporters that the club creates. I hope we don’t lose that in striving to achieve greater prominence.

Albion start the season with a familiar look, but a newfound vigour

Brighton’s season opening victory at the self-dubbed “Theatre of Dreams” was their first there in the club’s history, a remarkable day, and a piece of Albion history.

But not as remarkable a victory as it may first appear. This was actually Brighton’s 4th win over the Red Devils in the Premier League, the equal most wins by Brighton over any team in the Premier League, the others being Arsenal, Newcastle, Watford, and West Ham.

Leaving the only existing and continuous Premier League team that Brighton have failed to beat in a Premier League match as Chelsea, with Albion’s record against them currently standing as 4 draws, 6 defeats. No doubt a record Mr Potter will have an eye on, but that’s one for another day.

Pascal Gross got the much-deserved headlines for his two goals in an impressive performance, but one of the lesser spoken of elements from last weekend’s win was the impact of the lesser seen combination of Danny Welbeck and Adam Lallana. Two players with histories of injury troubles that have limited their respective game time since joining the club in 2020.

Welbeck and Lallana played a total of 1,478 minutes and 1,561 minutes of Premier League football respectively last season, out of a total of 3,420. With their on-pitch minutes totalling a respective 1,545 and 1,596 during the previous 2020/21 Premier League season.

However, when they do play, particularly together, Albion are a better team. A fact demonstrated by their points per game averages from last season with only four Albion players averaging higher. (Points per game: Lallana 1.5, Welbeck 1.4, Brighton’s average 1.34)

Not that you’d realise it from the reaction on social media to Adam Lallana’s selection in the starting line-up. Criticism that would soon be made to look absurd and highlight just how undervalued the 34 times capped ex-England international really is amongst large portions of the club’s support.

The introduction of additional substitutions this season will give Graham Potter the flexibility to use Welbeck and Lallana in more games, whist potentially maintaining their limited number of minutes across the season, which could prove to be a huge bonus.

The reality is that as the season goes on, both Lallana and Welbeck will likely have to be used sparingly. Meaning the likes of their second half replacements Undav and Mwepu, alongside the likes of younger prospects Ferguson and Alzate, will all need to step up and fill the holes they have left.

One of the four players who did have a better points per game record last season was Moises Caicedo. Since he has come into the team for the win over Arsenal at the Emirates in April, Brighton have achieved a points per game average of 2.22. The equivalent of 84 points over a 38-game season, which would have secured 3rd place in the Premier League last season.

Even more astounding is that seven of those nine games were against teams who finished in the top half of the Premier League last season and included wins away to Arsenal, Spurs and wins both home and away against Man United.

If we include the goalless draw with Norwich at the beginning of April, that’s 21 points accumulated from the last ten matches, an astounding total, and a good enough sample size to suggests something has really clicked for Graham Potter’s side of late.

The bigger picture of course is that form is temporary, and class is permanent. Let’s not get carried away, Brighton aren’t in the same class as the teams competing at the top end of the table. Demonstrated by Albion’s club record breaking losing run in the topflight of six consecutive defeats falling immediately prior to this good run of form.

The remarkable thing about last season wasn’t just the terrible home form contrasting with the amazing away form, which we regularly discussed, but how relatively bad the results were against the teams at the bottom end of the table. That run of six straight defeats included a 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa and a 3-0 home defeat to eventually relegated Burnley, as well as a defeat away to next weekend’s opponents Newcastle.

In fact, of the eleven teams they finished above in the Premier League table last season, Albion beat just two at the AMEX, newly promoted Brentford as well as eventually relegated Watford, losing four and drawing the other five. If they are going to keep up the momentum and optimism from their recent good fortunes, that will have to change.

It wasn’t long ago Graham Potter was making a frustrated comment in a post-match press conference advising fans to take a history lesson in response to what he felt was an unfairly negative reaction to a goalless draw with Leeds.

The AMEX crowd has shown itself to be a harsh critic in recent seasons, and as Graham Potter admitted himself in an interview with the Athletic last season “reputations change quickly in football”. Keeping the home fans onside may not appear like a big job currently given the recent run of good form, but they’ve experienced a lot of frustration in recent years, and a few more results like the defeats to Villa and Burnley last season could quickly change perspectives.

As I have discussed before, if Graham Potter were managing one of the club’s Brighton are competing against with the same record, he would have been sacked a long time ago. But because the club see that the bigger picture, they afford him more leniency, and have so far been proven wholeheartedly right. But that’s not to say more frustration isn’t ahead.

As Talking Tactics said this week on Twitter, “I think it is important to point out that the board and fans allow Potter this freedom to experiment. He may get it wrong in some games, but it doesn’t really matter because he will learn from the defeat and adjust accordingly. That is a fantastic space in which to work.”

It comes down to your attitude to risk. The Premier League is such a huge financial behemoth that it makes many clubs primarily plan to minimise the risk of relegation, whereas Albion have shown themselves willing to take more risks if it increases their chance of victory.

In an interview with Melissa Reddy after the win over Man United, Adam Lallana spoke about the team having “a lot of courage” and “being brave”. Many teams of Brighton’s stature, particularly on opening day, would have gone to a place like Old Trafford to defend for a point, or minimising the scale of a potential defeat. Not Graham Potter’s Albion, and their resultant away record speaks for itself.

One much spoken about aspect that may count against Albion this season are the two key players the team lost over the summer in Bissouma and Cucurella. Players who as it stands will be replaced with a combination of promoted development team players and returning loan players.

Whilst much of the talk has been about how much Albion will miss Cucurella due to the lack of left sided defensive options, last season’s record suggests the loss of Bissouma shouldn’t be understated. They won just once without Bissouma starting last season in 13 Premier League matches, compared to 11 wins over the 25 Premier League matches he started in. Whilst the additions of Mwepu and Caicedo alongside the reinvigoration of Gross and Mac Allister in slightly different roles, appears to have given Albion’s midfield a new lease of life in these post-Bissouma times. We will have to wait and see if that materialises into sustained success across the season.  

The lack of big-name replacements and additions to the squad may frustrate some supporters who are looking for some transfer window excitement, but it’s something we will have to get used to. As Paul Barber said at the recent fans’ forum, the club’s long-term strategy is to develop its own players and avoid paying big transfer fees in order to compete with the more financially replenished club’s.

As various reports have stated, the club may venture into the transfer market to buy a left-back, something the lack of a number 3 in the first team squad numbers hints to an intention towards. But with nearly £100m worth of player sales in one transfer window (and counting), you may get the impression that the club is going to splash some serious cash, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Some would say there is no excuse to not spend money. Well, how about £120m of cumulative losses from the last two reported financial years? Or that the club has only made a profit once since Tony Bloom took over as Chairman-Owner, whilst the club’s debt to him has steadily grown, and all whilst the club strives to become financially self-sufficient.

As I said in a recent piece on the club’s finances, their 2021 accounts showed transfer expenditure had increased significantly since promotion, with the club now having spent £241m in the last 5 years, but which is still one of the lowest totals in the topflight. Reflective of the stature of the club rather than its ambition.

Despite some high profile exits all the soundings from the club are that they are happy with what they have got, and happy with the model they are following. As Graham Potter said at last week’s fans forum “we have to find a strategy, we have to go on a path that won’t be straightforward. But if you believe in it enough and work hard enough, then I think you can achieve it…. I would never want to lower supporter’s expectations, you just hope they can see the bigger picture and the challenges that you have”.

This approach is relatively novel amongst the mostly big-name, big-spending reality of the Premier League transfer window. It is not without its risks, but with Tony Bloom steering the ship you know it will be a calculated risk backed up by reliable data and the brain power of the senior management at the club.

As strange as it may sound, Brighton will face tougher challenges as the season goes on than they did at Old Trafford last Sunday, as their squad depth is tested and as they look to overcome some of the issues they have faced at the AMEX in recent season.

But last weekend’s win over United showed that whilst Albion may be starting the season with a familiar look, there is a newfound vigour and a greater threat as a result. If the team can sustain this over a prolonged period and demonstrate it at the AMEX more often, continuing the success of last season is achievable despite the high-profile departures.

Progression vs Financial Sustainability

Following Brighton Mens team’s first ever top-half topflight finish last season, attentions have quickly turned to bettering that next season. Former Albion striker and current club ambassador Bobby Zamora recently said of the club’s prospects on TalkSport that “their aim next year has got to be Europe… There is not a year when they have gone backwards in the last five, ten years… As a club and where they are aiming to be, there has been a progression every year.”

Progression certainly has been the name of the game since Tony Bloom took ownership of the club in 2009. The previous season had seen one of the greatest relegation escapes in the club history as a run of five wins from their last seven overturned an eight point deficit to avoid relegation back to the fourth tier of English Football. The club even went into the final day of the season still needing points to be sure of safety.

But there was an instant upturn in fortunes when Tony Bloom took over, largely associated with the investment he provided to fund building the new stadium, which was opened two years later. After winning League One in 2011, the club were denied a return to the topflight just four years after Bloom took over, losing to Palace in that playoff semifinal. And despite then manager Gus Poyet saying that season was “now or never” for the club’s Premier League ambitions, and a further two playoff semifinal setbacks which followed, the club hasn’t looked back since.

But whilst it’s great talking about ambition and we’ve become accustomed to Albion’s aims of pushing on each season coming to fruition, fulfilling the club’s latest goal of establishing itself within the top half of the Premier League table, whilst working within their sustainable financial ambitions, will be tricky given how much the other Premier League clubs are spending.

If we look at the club’s finances, you can see that Albion have one of the lowest wage bills in the Premier League and a relatively low Wages/Turnover ratio of 72%.

Realistically, I think the club would need to increase their wage bill and up their Wages/Turnover ratio to over 80%, or about another £15m per season in wages to be able to meet those ambitions, which would help the club to keep its existing talent and add to it with additional quality. But that’s unlikely to fit within their important plans for financial sustainability.

The club managed to finish in the top half last season, but as have the likes of Burnley, Leeds and Sheffield United in recent seasons. And as their examples show, achieving that over a consistent period is far tougher and often takes serious investment. Investment of the level which I doubt the club is willing to meet, and for good reason.

The club hasn’t registered a profit since the financial year covering its first Premier League season, 2017/18 (it’s first since 1996/97, a financial result skewed following the sale of the Goldstone Ground), whilst Paul Barber has spoken publicly of the club’s financial target to be breaking even and decrease the reliance on owner Tony Bloom’s ever increasing loan to the club in order to make ends meet, a rather common-sense ambition you would think? But this is Professional Football we are talking about, an industry where common sense is often in short supply and where emotion and ambition often take over.

These financial targets will most likely instead require a reduction in costs, unless there is a significant increase in turnover. Particularly when you consider that in 2021, the club posted a whopping £53.4m loss (which was preceded by a £67.2m loss in 2020), admittedly exacerbated by the pandemic reducing some income sources. Plans to overturn a loss of this extent shows the club can’t expect to rely on additional income alone to achieve a break-even position.

That said, increases in prize money can help to fill that hole. Last season’s 9th place finish saw that increase by £27.5m to £135m. But, the club’s well-known generous performance related bonus structure will have eaten away at some of the additional revenue generated.

Paul Barber has also spoken about increasing other forms of revenue, with increases in revenue from player sales in particular being targeted. This can be seen most prominently with the recent sales of Yves Bissouma, Dan Burn and Ben White, which have all contributed to total player sales of around £100m over the past year, and will no doubt lead to a huge increase in profits from player sales compared to the £15m generated over the previous five years.

However, amounts spent on incoming transfers since promotion to the Premier League more than outweigh that amount and a significant portion of the increase in revenue will be earmarked for future purchases rather than just filling the hole in the bottom line. As Albion’s former Finance Director David Jones said to Andy Naylor for a piece in ‘The Athletic’ “going forward, to reduce the deficit, clearly, player trading needs to be part of the business.”

It is also important to point out here that whilst further increases in player sales could in theory fill the financial gap, it’s questionable whether selling your best players and replacing them on the cheap is a sustainable model to establish yourself in the top half of the Premier League.

As clubs like Southampton have shown, not really. In reality, you need more of a balance and to hold onto some of your best players, whilst replacing those that do leave ahead of time. As Brighton are finding out this summer, the higher you go up the Premier league table the more interest there is in your own players, and the more costly that replacement process becomes.

Ryan Adsett of ‘Seagulls Social’ said on Twitter recently that: “Think fans need to realise that Brighton are not what they once were. The high-quality links suggest we are aiming higher, and because we can now! To progress, the bar must be raised.”

Whilst I think he is right; the problem is I don’t think Albion’s financial model fits with the kind of signings some expect, and the signings that some transfer rumours have alluded to. In the Premier League, money ultimately talks.

So far Albion have managed to reduce their financial deficit and overcome their financial limitations with some smart player purchases. The 2021 accounts showed how transfer expenditure had increased since promotion to the Premier League, with the club now having spent £241m in the last 5 years, but which is still one of the lowest totals in the topflight. Further investment, particularly in attacking areas, will no doubt be required for the club to take that next step.

The issue is of course, that’s the most expensive area of the pitch to recruit for. Recent rumours have linked Brighton with the signing of former loan player Jesse Lingard, which would make sense, particularly with him being out of contract this summer meaning the club could arguably justify the higher wage demands due to a lack of transfer fee. A scenario not dissimilar to Albion’s signing of another former England international, Adam Lallana. But with the likes of West Ham and Newcastle also reportedly interested in Lingard, the prospective deal would be a difficult signing to pull off.

As the reported £41m spent on Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Jurgen Locadia, Florin Andone and Percy Tau is evidence of. You can’t always rely on big money transfer solving your problems.

The club’s other ploy in reducing player transfer spend is to purchase young attacking talent and develop them (via its academy and various loan spells) into the attacking talent the club requires, with this summer’s new signings Julio Enciso and Simon Adingra the latest additions to a long list of young attacking talent, all of whom have yet to reach fruition in terms of first team impact.

That model will probably be tested properly for the first time this season with some of Albion’s returning loanees expected to bolster the first team attacking numbers.

In a recent piece for ‘The Athletic’ Andy Naylor discussed our old favourite subject of taking chances as part of a piece on required areas of improvement, saying: “The additions of Undav, Mitoma and Enciso could help Potter’s side to both create more chances and score more goals.” And along with those three names there’s plenty more aside in terms of potential future attacking talent at the club.

But, whoever you pick off that growing list of names, it’s hard to find a player that you’d hang your hat on for the upcoming season, outside of Albion’s existing attackers. Time will tell if the likes of Sima, Ferguson and Zeqiri will become Albion first team regulars in the future. But the problem for the club in the meantime will be, if the likes of Maupay, Trossard and/or Welbeck leave, then they are relying on those others being ready (or in some cases even capable) of making the step up. The amount who weren’t even involved with the first team last season suggests that many are not. And if not, then an unavoidably large financial outlay would still be required to sign a necessarily established replacement and maintain the club’s level from last season in the short-term, which given the financial constraints is hard to see happening.

The South American football correspondent Tim Vickery has been full of praise for Albion’s transfer strategy of signing young (mostly South American, Vickery’s wheelhouse) talent with a view of developing them into future stars and selling them on at a huge profit, comparing this to the models established by Portuguese giants Benfica and Porto. A model recently seen most prominently with the purchases by Liverpool of Luis Diaz from Porto, and former Albion target Darwin Nunez from Benfica for a combined total of over £100m.

The difficulty Albion have in this area is twofold. Firstly, as the club’s fruitless pursuit of Darwin Nunez showed, their lack of European football makes the club less attractive to some players compared to other clubs from across the continent. And secondly signing younger players with the potential to have the first team impact means, particularly due to the rigours of the Premier League relative to the Portuguese Primeira Liga for example, these players will inevitably spend much of their initial time developing out on loan or on the fringes of the first team.

As the example of Ben White shows (admittedly a youth team product rather than a bought in talent), once Albion’s young talent is up to Premier League standard, if good enough, it won’t take long for them to be of interest to the top clubs, meaning they don’t stick around for long and so only have a short period of impact on the first team. A factor that again raises questions over this transfer strategies impact on the long-term sustainability of first team performance.

Some will say the example of Alexis Mac Allister tells a slightly different story, and that sustained and long-term first team impact is achievable with this approach. But of course, he isn’t primarily filling a position at the very top end of the pitch, being responsible for, as Graham Potter puts it, the hardest thing to do in football, score goals.

As Football finance expert and Albion fan Kieran Maguire spoke about in a recent article for ‘The Business Magazine’, Brighton have provided a financial model for Premier League survival, through expert oversight, cohesive management, a culture of steady, realistic improvement, and a healthy supportive atmosphere.

But to do more than just survive and achieve the club’s long term aim of establishing itself in the top half of the topflight, the club will have to continue to outsmart their opponents and find what Kieran calls “marginal gains”.

The club’s wage budget is currently in the bottom six, and with aims to balance the books at the club coming alongside a culture of spend, spend, spend among many of its Premier League competitors, it’s hard to see that changing.

The Premier League, financially at least, is the most competitive in the world. So, whilst ambitions of continuing to challenge for and become established amongst, the top ten remain,expectations on performance at the club will no doubt stay more grounded.

Whilst the progression has been the name of the game at the club since Tony Bloom became owner in 2009, probability is the likely trajectory of the club going forward could well be downwards from last season’s 9th place rather than upwards. And that relegation, or at least a relegation struggle is very likely in the near term.

There is some cynicism of the recent praise in the national media that both Graham Potter and the club has widely received for what these cynics see as fairly moderate achievements. But with the club’s financial limitations in mind, Albion continue to defy expectations and achieve progression beyond what many have deemed possible, time and time again.

If recent history shows us anything, it’s that Tony Bloom has built a structure and a financial model at the club which is giving the club an edge over its competition. Going forward as ambitions for further progress grows, the club wIll have to make some tough decisions as to how they balance those ambitions with the importance of the club’s financial sustainability.

Do Brighton Women’s team need relocation and reparations?

With both Brighton Men’s and Women’s teams finishing in the top ten in the country this year (9th and 7th respectively), these are exciting times to be a Brighton fan. And more exciting times are ahead with the AMEX stadium getting ready to host three Women’s Euros matches this summer, including one of England’s group games and potentially their quarter final match should they win their group. 

Hosting games at this summer’s Euros is a huge opportunity for Women’s and girls’ football in Brighton, as well as across the country. One that will almost inevitably lead to a much greater interest in the Women’s game, particularly at the top level. And so it is a huge opportunity for Brighton to in turn boost interest in thier Senior Womens team.

But a big part of the problem for the club in enabling that increase in interest to materialise into higher attendances and increased coverage, is playing their home games twenty-two miles north of Brighton in Crawley, on the very north edge of Sussex.

The best way for the club to capitalise upon this summer’s excitement as a club is to instead play all Women’s senior team games in Brighton. The problem with Brighton as a location is the lack of potential venues, but there is a simple and obvious solution here, play Women’s senior team games at the AMEX stadium.

Need is a word that I think is often overused by football fans, but above anything else at the club this summer, I feel this does NEED to happen. And happen now, not in three to five years’ time.

Before I continue, I want to prefix this by stating how lucky we are to have a club that resources and equips Women’s and girls’ football better than most in this country. The infrastructure that the club has built both in terms of its new state of the art training facilities, the expert personnel running the show at the club and the specific commercial deal with American Express for Women’s and girls’ football, have all enabled the Women’s senior team to excel and achieve club record league finishes of 6th and 7th place in the WSL in the past two seasons respectively.  

And going forward the club has stated serious aims to become an established top four club, competing at the very top end of the WSL and in European competitions. But all this makes their continued persistence with playing home games at Crawley all the more perplexing and frustrating.

What does the club have to say on this? Recently Paul Barber discussed this very idea, and his thoughts were essentially that resources are finite, and the club has little choice but to prioritise the Men’s game due to the potential financial burden of playing Women’s team games at the AMEX. An understandable business decision, but a short sighted one given the enormous potential growth in the Women’s game to come.

As one of the best Women’s teams in the country right now, the club has a huge opportunity to gain first mover’s advantage. Women’s football has grown massively over the past decade and this summer’s Euros will no doubt continue that trend. So, continuing to play games over at Crawley in front of around 1,000 people is an effective way to diminish that advantage and lose a huge opportunity for growth in the Women’s team.

Just look at the effect of the Men’s teams return to Brighton at Withdean in 1999. It wasn’t an 100% suitable solution and the club made a loss when hosting games there, but returning to Brighton and Hove provided a platform and a foundation for the club to build on, which has ultimately enabled its recent success. Without those years of struggle and strife the club wouldn’t be where it is today if be in existence at all.

In his comments on the reasoning for the Women’s team continuing to play home games at Crawley, Paul Barber also pointed to the potential strains on the AMEX pitch. Again, an understandable reason and I’m no expert on the use and management of football pitches, but given Albion only play 11 WSL home games per season, in general two of which are already being hosted at the AMEX, this is a relatively small number of additional games to account for in terms of pitch management. The equivalent of Albion’s Men’s team being involved in European competition for example.

Nine games, that’s it. I find it hard to conclude anything other than that the club could easily achieve playing both Men’s and Women’s senior games at the AMEX without too much additional strain on the pitch by shifting its priorities. We aren’t talking about ground sharing with a rugby team for instance, as is the case with many other Premier League and Championship teams.

The club already hosts a variety of events, international games as well as a mix of its youth teams matches at the AMEX each season. I find it hard to reconcile the club prioritising those events over Women’s senior team games alongside its previously stated ambitions for the Women’s team.

Let’s be honest, Crawley is barely even in Sussex, let alone near Brighton. I think it’s hard for the club to claim they treat the Men’s and Women’s teams equitably when the Women’s team don’t even play in the vicinity of the city of Brighton and Hove. 

As much as some will suggest options like Withdean or the clubs training ground in Shoreham, realistically, as we found out during the prolonged fight to build the AMEX at Falmer, there is no other realistic option in or around Brighton & Hove when it comes to hosting professional football matches. It’s the AMEX or nowhere.

When you look into the realities, it’s an accommodatable issue. Yes, crowds will likely be relatively low at first compared to mens first team matches, but even if it’s a case of playing in a tenth full AMEX stadium, that would be far better than playing in a fifth full Broadfield stadium in Crawley, miles away from the club’s key supporter base, and by a long way.

I don’t accept the financial arguments either. Particular given that Men’s football has ridden a wave of success built on the foundations of the repression of Women’s football for many decades.

As discussed by Freakonomics on a previous episode of their podcast (a series that I would wholeheartedly recommend), reparations are one option to solve this issue and in my opinion in this case are now long overdue.

I am not suggesting that the Men’s teams should share their revenue 50/50, but merely are required or even just encouraged to invest a portion of it into Women and girls’ football to compensate for the advantages the Men’s game has had by the restrictions placed on the Women’s game for so many decades.

If we go back to the beginning of Brighton Women’s teams’ history, we can understand this better. Brighton Women’s story begins in the 1960’s; in those days Brighton was represented in Women’s football by Brighton GPO, a team formed by several workers from the local post office’s telephone exchange.

There was no Albion Women’s team then as the state of play in Women’s football was vastly different. Men’s teams weren’t involved in Women’s football due a ban on Women’s football taking place at football league grounds that had existed since 1921. And it wasn’t until the formation of an independent body in 1969, the Women’s FA (WFA), that there was an official national organisation behind Women’s football giving teams like Brighton GPO the opportunity to compete in a formalised national competition.

Two years later, in 1971, the FA lifted its ban on Women’s football taking place in football league stadiums and in 1983 the WFA became officially affiliated as part of the FA. However, it wasn’t until 1991 that the FA fully integrated Women’s football within its national structure and a national league structure was established. Therefore, in 1990, along with a number of other clubs at the time, the Brighton Women’s football team was affiliated under the Brighton and Hove Albion F.C. umbrella and became a founding member of the Women’s Premier League in the 1991–92 season, starting within the regionalised second tier, the Division 1 South.

Despite this being relatively recent history in the terms of English football, in the early 90s Women’s football was still very much in its infancy following the decades of oppression from the hands of organisations like the FA and by extension international bodies like FIFA which it had great influence over, who deemed football ‘unsuitable for females’. For example, it would be another five years until Women’s football would first be played at the Olympics during the 1996 Atlanta games, despite the Men’s tournament existing at all but one Olympics since 1900.

Whilst since the 90’s and particularly the turn of the Millennium, Women’s football has continued to grow rapidly, there were still limited resources at the club to provide any significant level of investment into the Women’s team. With the Men’s senior team struggling to make ends meet at Withdean this left little funds for the Women’s team and left them still reliant on AITC fundraising to survive. This meant whilst teams at the very top like Arsenal were going professional, most others like Brighton were still semi-professional and most fans who went to watch their clubs Men’s team were lucky if they saw a page devoted to the Women’s team in the match day programme or an advert for the odd cup game against a big side to be played at the clubs main stadium.

In regards of one of Albion’s senior teams playing miles outside of the vicinity of Brighton & Hove, the club has of course experienced this kind of thing before with the Men’s teams brief 2-season spell ground sharing with Gillingham before their aforementioned move to a temporary home at the Withdean Stadium.

Whilst the journey to Gillingham was admittedly much further away than Crawley, the teams return to Brighton saw a rejuvenation in the club’s image after the damage of the civil war years in the mid-nineties and average crowd numbers doubled. There is no reason to believe that with the help of a post-Euros boost, a similar if not greater increase in crowd numbers could be achieved by the Women’s team were they to be permanently based in the vicinity of Brighton and Hove.

Whilst the club can in many respects be seen as a leader in regard to Women’s and girls’ football in this country, and they do their best in making Crawley feel like a suitable home for its Women’s team, including putting on free coaches for supporters and previously investing in upgrades to the ground’s facilities. It feels like an unsatisfactory solution and one which doesn’t sufficiently resource one of its senior teams, who are meant to have equal status at the club.

A simple way for the club to make a gesture towards repairing the damage carried out on the Women’s game for decades in this country, and to build upon the club’s recent success in the Women’s game, is to give their Women’s senior team the opportunity to thrive by playing their games in its state of the art AMEX stadium within the city of Brighton and Hove. If so, I don’t think it’s a decision anyone will come to regret.

Frustration and promise, with Albion set to break multiple records

Last weekends draw with Leeds in many ways reflected the story of the season for Graham Potter’s Brighton side. An impressive performance, being much the better team for the majority and yet coming away with less than they deserve.

Yet another draw that could and probably should have been a win. The 15th draw of the season, equalling a club topflight record from 1979/80. Not the club topflight record we were hoping to get on Sunday.

However, there is plenty reason to celebrate. As well as extending the club’s good run over Leeds, that could be the point that secures a record high topflight league finish for the club. And whilst the early season talk of European qualification soon petered out, results elsewhere also mean a win on the final day against West Ham would be enough for a top half finish. Which given our good record against them, is very possible.

Either way, it is also a point that gives Albion a total of 48 points, which as well as being a Premier League record, means they now have achieved their highest ever points per game average in a topflight season. Less than the 52 gained in 1981/82, but that was in a 42 game season.

And Albion’s good end of season is more than just positive for the sake of a few records and statistics. It gives a more positive glow on the season than there was just a month and a half ago when the club drew at home with bottom placed Norwich after a run of six straight defeats.

The subsequent introduction of Moises Caicedo in particular has been revolutionary, with Graham Potter even admitting he made a mistake in not giving him a chance earlier. A player whose presence has greatly diminished the panic surrounding the seemingly inevitable departure of Yves Bissouma this season and the long term injury to Jakub Moder.

Meanwhile, Danny Welbeck’s supreme leading of the line flanked by the ever-improving Leandro Trossard and Alexis Mac Allister have all meant even the seemingly endless panic surrounding Albion’s lack of depth up front has somewhat diminished.

However, it does raise other question marks. Particularly about the future of two young players in those areas of the squad, Steven Alzate and Aaron Connolly.

Both were introduced into the first team by Graham Potter back in 2019 and had meteoric rises to prominence, but have both since struggled to maintain that upward momentum.

Steven Alzate was signed from League 2 Leyton Orient in 2017 and loaned to League 2 Swindon in 2018. But soon after his first team debut the following year was called up to the Columbian national team, then ranked 10th in the world and soon became crucial to both his club and national team.

But his 9 appearances (including just 5 starts) in the Premier League this season is his lowest since his promotion to the first team and he subsequently wasn’t even named of the subs bench for Columbia’s World Cup qualifiers in March.

His former development teammate Aaron Connolly’s impressive home league debut, which saw him score twice against a desperately poor Tottenham side, also saw Connolly called up by his national team, Ireland. But he has also struggled to make a consistent impact for both club and country since, on the pitch at least. And even a loan period at Championship side Middlesbrough, where he scored just twice in 21 appearances, has seemingly failed to relight his promising career.

The momentum behind Connolly that saw him become one of the hottest youth properties in the country after an impressive 2018/19 season with Albion’s development team which saw him beat Arsenal’s Eddie Nketiah to the Premier League 2 Player of the season award, has truly been halted.

But where some fail, others may prosper, and there are many other members of Albion’s loan army who will return this summer with renewed vigour after impressive seasons.

Arguably most notably is defender Jan Paul Van Hecke, who was named Blackburn Rovers player of the season, and returns south with his fellow Blackburn loanee Reda Khedra who has also shown plenty of promise. Meanwhile eyes will also be on Karou Mitoma, Kacper Kozlowski and the recently added Dennis Undav, whose joint part in the recent success of Tony Bloom’s Belgian side project USG has seen them all earmarked as possible Albion stars of the future.

And that selection of players is merely the tip of the iceberg when it come to potential first team additions next season from

the clubs bulging roster of existing options. As Graham Potter has shown in the past with the likes of Robert Sanchez, he isn’t afraid to pluck a player from obscurity to fill a first team place. So I won’t even try to cover all the bases.

Just seven weeks ago, Albion’s long list of out of contract first team players, both this and next summer, being coupled with their poor run of form was giving us Albion fans mounting concerns for next season. But, oh how a few wins can change your perspective. As the club has settled nicely into the calm of mid table obscurity with games to spare, this space has allowed for the opportunities of the future to come to the fore, of which there are many.

This is in great contrast to the club’s previous record high topflight finish of 13th in 1981/82.

Then Albion manager Mike Bailey, who’d only taken over from Alan Mullery at the begging of the season, had set the team up playing an uninspiring defensive style of football that wasn’t to everyone’s taste, including chairman Mike Bamber. And whilst it at first produced results, with a landmark 1-0 win at Anfield leaving the team 8th in the league, a subsequent run of ten defeats in the last 14 games of the season meant the club finished in 13th. 

After the slump at the end of the season and along with the negativity surrounding Bailey’s defensive tactics, the club started the following season in unsettled fashion. This wasn’t helped when club captain Steve Foster handed in a transfer request, telling the press at the time: “It just seems like the chairman doesn’t want to move forward.”

It’s fair to say that Bamber had a lot on his plate, with the club financially unstable and reportedly losing £6,000 a week, he needed to get people coming back through the turnstiles to turn the financial tide in danger of crashing against the club.

These were dark days in English football’s popularity and reputation and attendances were falling. Albion’s were no different, at times were falling under 10,000. As far as Bamber was concerned: “I have been bitterly disappointed at the very poor sale of season tickets and wonder if the Sussex public really want First Division football,” he said in August of that season.

The following season the club was relegated and after mounting debt from the excesses of those glory years, the club went on a downward spiral to almost falling out the football league and out of existence just over a decade later.

Recent examples of the likes of Leeds, who finished an impressive 9th last season gaining plenty of by plaudits, show us not to be complacent about Albion’s recent success. But we can also be glad of the comparatively vastly greater structural and financial stability at the club than in their previous topflight jaunt.

The modern reality of the club is very different. Yes this season has seen it’s fair share of frustration. But amongst all that frustration last weekend was another example of the best thing about this season from a Brighton perspective, how much scope for improvement there is despite being on the verge of a club record league finish.

And even if things on the pitch do take a turn for the worse, with the backing of Tony Bloom the club is in safe hands to be able to withstand a setback and come back fighting, unlike in the aftermath of the clubs previous record breaking league finish.

A trip to Elland Road with many permutations and much bravado

Elland Road has not been short of drama in recent years when Albion have visited, and Sunday’s meeting could be another.

Back in 2017 Albion travelled to Elland Road with both sides still in the mix for automatic promotion to the Premier League. On that day it was Leeds who triumphed in a Chris Wood inspired 2-0 victory, which in-turn inspired the home fans to taunt Brighton’s by chanting: “you’ll fuck it up” in reference to the Seagulls promotion bid and failure to achieve promotion the season before. 

However, that season Brighton did go onto achieve automatic promotion with three games to spare, whilst Leeds failed to even make the end of season promotion playoffs and it would be another three seasons before they would finally achieve promotion and a long-awaited return to the topflight. 

A win for Brighton over Leeds this weekend could secure the club a first ever top half topflight finish, and could well relegate Leeds in the process, or at least go a long way towards it. If these permutations do materialise, Saturday could well be another day when Leeds fans bravado comes back to embarrass them. 

In his book ‘The art of the deal’, former US President Donald Trump (inarguably the King of bravado) stated: “The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people’s fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That’s why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. I call it truthful hyperbole. It’s an innocent form of exaggeration—and a very effective form of promotion. “ 

But the reality is, unlike in politics, bravado can only get you so far in sport, where there can be no hiding from the results. As the old saying goes, the league table doesn’t lie. And when comparing Leeds’ and Brighton’s recent history, it makes for far better reading for Brighton.

Last season was the first time Leeds finished above Brighton in the league since 2015 and only the second time since Albion won League One in 2011, with this season set to make Brighton superior in 9 out of the past 11 seasons. It does seem that for Leeds, last season is at risk of becoming an anomaly rather than the beginning of a return to its now historic prominence.

It goes further, Brighton’s recent supremacy over Leeds is demonstrated by their record in matches between the clubs. Since Brighton’s promotion to the Championship in 2011 they have beaten Leeds on ten out of the last fifteen occasions, drawing three times and losing just twice. 

The form table doesn’t make encouraging reading for Leeds either. Couple Brighton’s good away record this season (equal 4th best in the league) with Leeds poor home record (3rd worst, a record even worse than Brighton’s), having only beaten bottom of the table Norwich at home since their win over Burnley on 2nd January, losing five and drawing once in that time, it’s hard to be overly optimistic for Leeds in what is surely a must win game for the Yorkshire club.

As I see it, a big problem for a club like Leeds, whose history overshadows its present, is that this feeling of belonging in a place you’ve not been for a significant period of time creates a culture of discontent and resentment, feelings that have seemingly manifested themselves into a culture of excessive bravado.

It’s a culture at the club that’s spawned the type of brash discourse Brighton fans have become familiar with in their dealings with Leeds, no less so than during the prolonged transfer saga of Ben White. 

Who could forget the social media storm that was #FreeBenWhite, and the subsequent guffawing of Leeds fans when it was suggested by The Athletic that Brighton didn’t want to sell someone they considered an important player to Leeds, a club that they considered a direct rival to their long-term ambitions of topflight establishment.

But as subsequent events have shown, things move quickly in football. One moment you’re on top, as Leeds were last season finishing 9th on their return to the topflight, just missing out on European football, whilst their manager Marcelo Bielsa was receiving widespread acclaim along with a nomination for FIFA manager of the year. Fast forward 12 months and Leeds are in serious danger of a prompt return to the Championship, whilst Bielsa is no longer in a job, having been sacked with just 26 games of the season gone, and it’s a team you deem as inferior who are now the flavour of the moment.

Brighton are not without their own form of bravado, I’ve spoken at length before about my concerns with the club’s incredibly ambitious and outspoken objectives. But these statements in contrast to Leeds, appear to have contributed towards the club’s success rather than the opposite.

Even before the current level of ambition, prior to the club’s promotion to the Premier League CEO Paul Barber would persistently preach (to the point of tedium) about how the club was “Premier League ready”. A form of bravado that has rather than create resentment towards the club, instead created a significant amount of admiration for the club’s overachievement and helped changed the mindset at a club that has spent more of its history in the third tier of the Football League than anywhere else.

Bravado is a part of football that we all partake in, even if it is done somewhat in jest. Neither Brighton nor Leeds are short of it, but whilst one club has used it to its advantage, for the other it appears to be to its detriment.

Brighton can take warning from Leeds’ example, to not get too complacent or arrogant after a period of success and get swept up in the acclaim. The moment you do, the Premier League can be an unforgiving place.

Progress under Potter yet to be seen at the AMEX

This Sunday Albion face Southampton in what is already pretty much a dead rubber, with both sides sitting comfortably in mid-table, out of the way of both the relegation dogfight at the bottom-end of the table, as well as any loftier ambitions towards the top-end. And yet Albion go into this Sundays match at the AMEX with a lot to play for.

First and foremost, there’s the small matter of improving their awful Premier league points total achieved at the AMEX this season, small being the operative word. Having taken just 15 points from 16 games, only Norwich (20th) and Watford (19th) have earned less points at home in the Premier League this season.

And yet at the time of writing the club sit 10th, with a genuine chance of not just a club record high league finish, but a first ever top-half topflight finish following back-to-back wins in the capital over first Arsenal and then Spurs.

The key factor in those most recent wins appears to be that the team were not playing at home. With games running out in Graham Potter’s third season in charge of the club, he has still failed to win as many Premier league games at the AMEX as his predecessor Chris Hughton oversaw in just two seasons.

The atmosphere at the AMEX has been a regular point of contention in recent seasons, but particularly this one. No wonder however, given how bad the teams form has been there under Graham Potter, having won just 12 home games out of 54 in the Premier League.

But there has still been significant progress, albeit mostly away from the AMEX. Ahead of their trip to Man City on Wednesday night they have doubled their points return away from home compared to that under Chris Hughton, having won just 24 points from 38 games away from home under his tenure, 0.63 per game. Whilst they have won 64 from 54 games under Potter, or 1.19 points per game. And at the time of writing have the 6th highest points total away from home in the Premier league this season.

Albion’s poor home form under Potter isn’t without its improvements in many aspects of the team’s performance too, particularly ball retention. Something Chris Hughton failed to improve despite his numerous attempts to do so towards the end of his tenure, including a doomed persistence with a switch to a 433 formation.

Under Chris Hughton, Albion had the fourth lowest average possession, the fifth lowest passing accuracy and the second lowest shots taken per game in the Premier league’s 18/19 season. This season Brighton have the fourth highest average possession, the seventh highest passing accuracy and the sixth highest average number of shots taken. To put this into context, rather than these attributes being comparable with relegation contenders, these attributes are now more similar to title contenders.

But I doubt you need me telling you that it’s the key part of the performance that Albion are failing to improve on, as turning all that good work into goals has been the constant issue for Graham Potter’s Albion. In fact, in many ways the team have regressed at the AMEX in front of goal under Potter having averaged a fairly measly 1.00 goals scored per game in the Premier League at the AMEX, compared to the 1.13 averaged under the more defensive Chris Hughton.

To put that into context, this translates this to an average of 22.2 shots per goal scored from Graham Potter’s Albion so far this season at the AMEX compared to just 10.8 shots per goal at the AMEX under Hughton in 18/19.

Looking purely in this context it’s surprising Graham Potter has remained in the job for this long despite this poor home record, for many mangers your home league form is your bread and butter. Brighton aside, you have to go up to newly promoted Brentford (14th based on home results) to find a team who haven’t sacked their manager.

However, I am not for one minute suggesting Graham Potter should be sacked, but it’s important to appreciate that it’s hard to find many examples of teams with as poor a home record as Brighton’s who haven’t dispensed off their manager. And this is a record that has persisted for three seasons, not just one.

It does highlight both how much the teams away from has been the saving grace, how patient and trusting Albions board of directors have been and how much credit they should get for the teams relative success this season. But it does also help to explain and contextualise the frustration and at times toxic atmosphere you can experience at the AMEX.

The question is, does playing at the AMEX inhibit the team taking those chances in front of goal? That certainly seems to be the case since Graham Potter took charge and if the last home game vs Norwich is anything to go by, it’s getting worse.

Despite the teams potentially unprecedented league high finish in the club’s history, an atmosphere of frustration and anger caused by this poor home form has on more than one occasion this season even led to audible booing and jeering of the team.

It’s not just the team’s performance in front of goal where the fans get frustrated. All those impressive passing and possession stats may look good on paper, but often translate into a fair few moans and groans from the crowd as Albion recycle the ball from side to side without much forward penetration for long periods of the game. Patience is a virtue not held by everyone in the AMEX crowd it seems

Graham Potter’s recent comments about how some Brighton fans urging his players to shoot presents the players a “challenge” was taken out of context by some as a criticism of the crowd, something he later denied. But it’s fair to say that the team’s patient and possession-based approach doesn’t appeal to everyone.

Graham Potter’s tactical development of the team from a fairly direct and defensive side to a possession based, more attack-minded side has rightly earned its plaudits, but it doesn’t always get the same appreciation from the home support.

It’s often said whilst in other countries the crowd will get excited by an individual moment of skill or technical brilliance, British football crowds are more likely to get off their seat as a result of their team winning a crunching tackle or a corner.

Whilst the Hughton era ended up frustrating itself to death by not being able to retain enough of the ball, the Potter era (for all its achievements) is in danger of at least being diminished by the exact opposite, a perceived over retention of the ball with ultimately similar end results. Well, at home at least.

Amongst the frustration Graham Potter’s saving grace has been his ability to retain the team’s stability without the ball, whilst progressing the team’s performance with it. Something that’s been the club’s foundation throughout its Premier League tenure.

Whilst the recent dip in form has included 9 goals being conceded in the last 4 games at the AMEX, the 11 conceded in the 10 prior tells a very different story, particularly when you consider four of those were scored by reigning champion’s Manchester City, who were the only team to take maximum points away from the AMEX over that period.

Whilst not at the AMEX, last Saturday saw Brighton back to their defensive best, Spurs barely had a sniff. Indeed, it was a fairly quiet day for Albion’s goalkeeper Robert Sanchez, who didn’t have to make one save.

This was a defence without record signing Adam Webster and without the recently sold Dan Burn, yet they produced one if the best defensive performances of the season.

Being realistic, with resources dwarfed by many top flight clubs, even many of those outside of the Premier League’s giants, bad runs are going to happen for Brighton in the Premier League and times of struggle are going to occur.

So, getting to 40 points this early in a season shouldn’t be an underestimated achievement. And getting results away to Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Spurs all in the same season shouldn’t be either.

The transformation in style under Graham Potter cannot be understated, but still needs time and patience to reach full fruition. The team have gone from one with a playing style more comparable to strugglers like Burnley and Newcastle to one more comparable to title challengers like Man City and Liverpool. Turning that style into substance consistently isn’t a quick fix, nor is it an inevitability, especially with the potential of much upheaval in personnel this summer.

As Jermaine Jenas said on BT Sport after Brighton’s win over Spurs: “I won’t have any talk about Graham Potter and his job… Brighton fans need to remember to an extent, they need to understand this guy is about to achieve something historical with this football club… they’re almost lucky to have him.”

Sunday’s match with Southampton is a great place to start turning the bad home results around. And it could be that the freedom of a supposed meaningless dead rubber and of not having the pressure that comes with the imminent threat of relegation, is exactly what Graham Potter’s Brighton need to shake the monkey of their underperformance at home from off their backs.

For all the talk of progress under Potter’s management, many of the great AMEX days in the Premier League era have come under his predecessor. Yet I for one wouldn’t be surprised if Brighton did go on a bit of a run, caused a few more shocks and picked up a fair few more points in the process this season, starting with Southampton on Sunday. And with the visit of Man United and West Ham coming next month, two teams Albion have surprisingly good recent records against, the opportunity for that first top half topflight finish is very much still alive despite the recent poor run of results.

Looking for the good amongst the frustration

As the final whistle blew on a cold spring afternoon at the AMEX stadium, the boos rang out across the South Downs. Boos heard from many of the remaining hardy souls who had braved the chill, not that of the spring breeze but that of Albion’s recent poor form.

There has been many voicing their frustration over the home support at the AMEX this season. But given the rudderless nature of Albion’s otherwise admirable attacking play for much of Graham Potter’s tenure, that so many still come to support the team with hope of better and are renewing their season tickets for next season despite the uninspiring nature of much of the football on show, actually in contrast says a lot about the dedicated supportiveness of the AMEX faithful.

Albion’s goalless draw with bottom side Norwich City extended the clubs winless run to 7 games and their scoreless home run to 5 games. With games running out in Graham Potter’s third season in charge of the club he has still failed to win as many Premier league games at the AMEX as his predecessor Chris Hughton.

Under Graham Potter Brighton have won just 12 home games out of 52 in the Premier League, still one less than under Hughton did in just 38 games.

For all the talk of progress, Graham Potter’s Albion statistics are in many aspects quite comparable to that of his predecessor, whose achievements he was brought in to build on and surpass. Albion have averaged a fairly measly 1.00 goals scored per game under Graham Potter in the Premier League at the AMEX, compared to 1.13 under the more defensive Chris Hughton.

And yet there has been tangible progress, particularly away from the AMEX where Albion have doubled their points return compared to that under Chris Hughton. Brighton won just 24 points from 38 games away from home under Hughton, 0.63 per game, vs the 58 from 52 games under Potter, or 1.12 points per game.

And despite all the frustration, the style of football and quality of possession from the team has noticeably changed for the better under Potter’s tenure as many statistics will tell you, aside from the ones that really count of course, goals scored, and points accumulated.

The frustration of the Hughton era hasn’t gone away, and if anything, this season has reached a new nadir in that regard. Despite some irritation towards this frustration, it’s not entirely unreasonable. According to whoscored.com Brighton have scored just three goals from open play at home in the league all season. That’s the equal lowest in all of England’s top four divisions along with Gillingham and is dramatically behind their average across their previous four Premier League seasons of 13.

Gloomy stuff, it seems like it was a long time ago that we were talking of top half finishes and dreaming of a European tour. The club right now is full of ambition, but at the moment there’s a growing feeling of unfulfilled ambition. A factor creating an environment of frustration, anxiety, and despondency. The perfect recipe for depression

But amongst all this gloom it’s worth remembering where the club is right now and comparing that not just to its entire history but particularly to where it was when Tony Bloom took over as Chairman back in 2009.

As a reminder, having narrowly survived relegation to the 4th tier on the last day of the season (by beating Stockport County 1-0, who by contrast are currently playing in the National League), Albion had finally got permission to build their new stadium in Falmer, but due to the global economic crash and credit crunch, they suddenly had no way of paying for it.

So, in stepped Tony Bloom and as the saying goes, the rest is history. Within two years the club were League One Champions and had moved into their brand spanking new stadium. Six years later they were a topflight club for the first time in 34 years.

What a whirlwind, in hindsight it was probably the best period to be an Albion fan in its history. That level of success, progression and excitement will probably never be matched again. The club literally went from living out of portacabins to being “Premier League ready” in just a matter of months, it truly was a dream come true.

So, it’s understandable that the subsequent and inevitable flatlining of that progress has led to significant frustration. Frustration that when comparing the team’s fortunes at home and away has clearly seeped into the teams’ performances at the AMEX.

To a degree it’s the natural process for many football clubs. Success and joy, followed by a natural flatlining and then subsequent regression back to the mean amongst an inevitable environment of frustration.

How many club’s supporters describe themselves as a “sleeping giant” with “lots of hidden potential”? I’d say a good chunk of the football league, but for every winner there must be a loser.

Despite this, in his relatively short time as chairman Tony Bloom has uncovered the potential in the club that had been hidden for most of the over a century worth of history prior to his ownership. It’s the type of story most clubs and fans dream of, we have lived that dream.

In 2013, less than two years after the AMEX had opened its doors, manager Gus Poyet said it was “now or never” for Albion to win Premier League promotion due to the effect of FFP on the Championship. But despite the club losing in the playoffs that season they continued to compete, losing again in the playoffs the season after that, and again two years later, before finally achieving automatic promotion to the topflight in 2017. It’s fair to say we’ve become accustomed to the club excelling our expectations. But that can’t always happen, and continuous progression is not sustainable, especially in such a competitive environment as the Premier League.

Frustration and feelings of gloom are a natural part of life, as it often has a habit of reminding us. But recent life experiences have made me realise that even in the most difficult times there is joy and hope and that we must appreciate that for all its worth. Otherwise, the bad can swallow you up and there can seem like no way out.

I’m not one of motivational quotes, but in the low times you’ll try whatever you can to achieve some solace. One quote that does help me on those occasions is: “life is full of beautiful possibilities”. The problem is we are often too concerned with the adverse possibilities to fully appreciate it when the beautiful possibilities come to fruition.

In that spirit (and I know it’s obvious and boring to say) we really should appreciate Albion being in the topflight whilst it lasts, because it won’t last forever. Tony Bloom is quite obviously a genius, but even his genius has its limitations.